Quarter-life Consortium

2006-11-23T21:47:00.000-08:00

The Kuhn Quarterback Recap (Week 12)

The season's almost over, but we have a few good games left before it ends.

WHAT I SAID: "Before I get to the two big rivalries, let me just say that I think Rutgers is going to lose to Cincinnati because they're coming off an emotional high and too busy looking ahead. You heard it here first folks."

WHAT ACTUALLY HAPPENED: Booya! As a USC fan this made me very happy, but I do feel a little bad for Rutgers. Even though they got clowned, they didn't deserve to fall as far as they did. Especially considering it took them so long to climb that high in the first place. Still, if they are really a great team, they can still beat West Virginia and win the Big East.

WHAT I SAID: "Therefore, Michigan wins. And here's the thing. The game's been hyped up beyond all belief. This happened twice last year (USC/ND and USC/Texas) and managed to live up to it both times. The one the year before (USC/OU) did not. I don't think this one will either. Some are predicting a Ohio State blowout, but I haven't see any predict a Michigan blowout. Well, I am. Michigan does to Smith what it did to Quinn...make him make really stupid mistakes."

WHAT ACTUALLY HAPPENED: Some would say it lived up to all the hype, but I don't agree. It wasn't back-and-forth touchdowns. Ohio State took a pretty commanding lead and then let Michigan back into the game. Yes, there's something to be said for a team coming back and keeping the score within three. But a team being really far ahead and coming back to ALMOST win does not make a great game. If they had won, it would have lived up to the hype.

(Randomly last night we rewatched the USC/Notre Dame game of last year on DVD, and I forgot how great that game was. You could take away Notre Dame's go ahead touchdown with only two minutes left, not to mention USC's most amazing last second victory ever, and it would STILL have been a great game.

Anyway, I was wrong about Ohio State. They are a really good team, and Smith has almost certainly wrapped up his Heisman Trophy. The only catch is that some other nominees still have games left. But the only one that I think still has an outside shot is Darren McFadden of Arkansas, as they play two top ten teams. If he runs wild over both of them...well, I still don't think he'll win. But he's only a sophomore, so watch out next year.

WHAT I SAID: "Now even though this is the biggest game in the country, there will be one state where no one is watching. That's because Auburn and Alabama play each other at the same time. Alabama needs a win to secure a winning season and to stop an Auburn streak. Auburn needs a win to make up for its embarrassing loss last week. I think they need it about the same, but I'm giving the edge to Auburn in an ugly, low scoring game."

WHAT ACTUALLY HAPPENED: Not super ugly, but two missed two point conversions certainly isn't pretty.

WHAT I SAID: "Though not a real rivalry, there's been a thing between USC and Cal for the past few years, ever since they beat us when they were unranked and nearly knocked us off the next year. Cal is going to be out for blood after losing to Arizona. USC needs to win now that they know their fate is in their own hands. Obviously USC needs it more. So Cal wins? Nay. This doesn't follow the formula because it's not a real rivalry."

WHAT ACTUALLY HAPPENED: It was a battle for awhile. I mean, the score was 3-2 for quite some time, and at halftime it was 9-9. That's an SEC score. But USC looked very impressive at the end. They are hitting their stride.

NEW NATIONAL TITLE PICTURE

I will say that while Michigan has a valid argument that they're still the second best team, USC easily wins the argument that it deserves to go to the National Championship team if it wins out. Yes, the loss to Oregon State is ugly, but look at who they beat. Depending on how things work out, USC could have beaten TWO conferences championships in Arkansas and Nebraska. Add in Notre Dame, and their non-conference schedule is quite a winner.

YOU BET

Once again, I posted a profit. I won $24. Even though Michigan lost, they beat the 7-point spread. And Auburn beat the 3-point spread. I'm surprised those two games' spreads weren't reversed.

BCS GAMES

In addition to the four conference winners, there are four BCS spots open to others. Who will get them?

1. Michigan will obviously get one, most likely the open Rose Bowl spot.

2. If West Virginia beat Rutgers, that means Louisville wins the Big East. But WVU would then most likely get a BCS invite.

3. If Boise State wins their last game, they are guaranteed an invitation.

3. The last spot gets a little murky. If both Texas and Oklahoma win this weekend, Texas plays in the Big 12 Championship against Nebraska. That means Oklahoma could get an invite since they'd have a big winning streak and perhaps a healthy Petersen coming back for the bowl game. (Maybe against Michigan in the Rose Bowl.)

If Texas loses, however, the BCS will be forced to pick between a number of good two loss teams, but they'll all have lost VERY recently. (i.e. Notre Dame [hopefully], Florida/Arkansas loser) For popularity they'd probably go with Notre Dame, but I think it depends on the scores of the games and who gets the bid. If the SEC Championship game is close, the loser might get an invite. And considering that Florida hasn't been to a BCS game in awhile and Arkansas has never been (?), their fans would probably flock, especially if the Orange Bowl has the pick.

My guess is that Notre Dame gets left out of the BCS. I hope.

Too bad about the rule that only two teams from any one conference can go, leaving 1-loss Wisconsin without any BCS love.

MY PREDICTIONS

Arkansas and Florida are going to face each other with only one loss each. I don't see Arkansas having much of a problem with LSU, but a big win over them would still be impressive. Florida is in a lose-lose situation because if they play poorly against them, they'll be laughed at. But even if they cream them, they won't be doing anything that Wake Forest didn't already do.

Notre Dame's defense has shown no signs of stopping big plays. Other than their huge comeback win against Michigan State, they've shown no signs of playing an entire game. USC will take advantage of both of these things. Expect this score to be closer to the 31-point blowouts of years past than the crazy 3-point game from last year.

South Carolina finally knocks off a ranked team in Clemson.

Kentucky plays Tennessee close...for Kentucky.

2006-11-16T01:24:00.000-08:00

The Kuhn Quarterback Recap (Week 11)

What an interesting little weekend, huh? After only two weeks away, USC is back in the national title hunt. Depending on exactly how the numbers work out, they might have a clear path if they win out (which I think they will). And speaking of interesting weekends, it was a good weekend for my predictions (mostly). Let's take a look.

WHAT I SAID: Louisville plays at Rutgers Thursday night. Either way a Cinderella story continues. But I learned my lesson about picking against Louisville, so I pick them.

WHAT ACTUALLY HAPPENED: The bigger Cinderella story is still going strong. Though I wasn't able to watch the game, I read a lot about it. What's most impressive to me is that Rutgers came back from an 18-point deficit and shut-out Louisville in the second-half AND made up the points. So it wasn't like they just got lucky. They figured out what wasn't working and fixed it, much like the USC (and other good) teams of the past. This is why I think they deserve a national title shot if they go undefeated.

WHAT I SAID: South Carolina plays at Florida. It will be the first time Spurrier has been on that field while not playing for or coaching the Gators (for a game, that is). I think destiny is in the making, and South Carolina badly needs a good solid win. They pull the upset.

WHAT ACTUALLY HAPPENED: They should have won the damn game. In fact, they should have won by nine points. Florida blocked two field goals and an extra point (the point they won by), plus South Carolina made a long field goal that got called back because of a delay of game penalty. The even worse thing is that the SAME GUY from Florida blocked the extra point and the field goal at the end that would have won it.

And what point do you put in third-string players that really want to play to block for your special teams. Enough is enough.

Despite the win, the ugly Florida play is setting it up nicely for them to get steamrolled by Arkansas in the SEC Championship game.

WHAT I SAID: Georgia at Auburn. This is a Georgia team that's lost to both Vanderbilt AND Kentucky. Which will make it so much worse when they beat Auburn. Don't say I didn't warn you, tigers.

WHAT ACTUALLY HAPPENED: I don't mean to say I told you so but...DAMN. Not only did Auburn lose badly, their QB had some of the worse stats I've ever seen. I read through the play-to-play just so I could comprehend how it was humanly possible. Are you ready for this? Their QB was 4 of 12 for 34 yards with 1 touchdown and 4 picks, plus he was sacked four times. That's bad enough as it is, but let's dig deeper. Three of those picks were to the same person, and one of those was returned for a touchdown. So the Auburn QB threw as many offensive TDs as defensive ones. He also threw for more interception return yards than offensive passing yards. Not to mention that he threw as many picks as completions. Still, there's more. His touchdown pass was for 34 yards. Yes, this means his other three completions were for a net total of 1 yard. (For the curious, they were an 11 yard gain, a 7 yard loss, and a 3 yard loss.)

The only bright spot is that he DID score more offensive points than defensive points because after that TD pass he threw for a two-point conversion. I'm not sure which part is more surprising. That he got the two-point conversion or that Tuberville let him threw. Perhaps he figured the Georgia coach, like myself, would never expect a pass.

All in all, Auburn has had their butt handed to them TWICE AT HOME. Not only score-wise but statistically as well. That's the one thing I've noticed is that when SEC teams get blown out, they tend to not be able to move the ball at all. Compared to USC's 35-10 victory over Oregon. Roughly the same win margin, but Oregon didn't look nearly as bad.

WHAT I SAID: Tennessee at Arkansas. Arkansas keeps rolling, and maybe after those other SEC teams lose it will finally get some love in the polls.

WHAT ACTUALLY HAPPENED: There was a stat on espn about how much Arkansas has out gained its last few opponents on the ground. It's staggering. I hope they keep rolling and win the SEC Championship. Not only does this make USC look better but also maybe it will help put a stop to all the whining about how hard it is for even a good team to go undefeated in the SEC since it will be the second time one has done so in three years. (For the record, I agree that it's hard for a "good" team to do so but not a "great" team, and only great teams should be playing for the national championship.)

WHAT I SAID: Oregon at USC. We always have trouble with running QBs. ALWAYS. Sometimes we adjust. Sometimes we do not. I think this is one of the times we adjust. Whether or not it's in time to win comfortably or win barely I don't know, but I do think we'll win. We'd better. It's Homecoming, and I'll be there.

WHAT ACTUALLY HAPPENED: They moved the ball on us like crazy, but we shut them down in the redzone. They went past our 20 five times and only came away with seven points. One time they missed an easy field goal, but the other two times they needed touchdowns and we held them. Also, Lawrence Jackson got three sacks, the first of the season. This is good because we need to make more sacks.

If you watched this game I feel for you, but it was so much worse at the Coliseum. If you didn't watch it, just know that there was perhaps the longest pause ever in a NCAA football game due to replay related activity. I'll try to be brief. Oregon's QB is chased out of the pocket toward the sideline, throw into the endzone as he's going out of bounds and an Oregon guy jumps up and comes down with the ball. Touchdown. (This happened on the opposite side of the field from where I was.)

But the booth calls for a review. It takes forever, probably about ten minutes. But I realize there are multiple aspects they have to check. Did the QB step out before throwing it? (I doubt it.) Did the receivers foot hit the line when he came down? (Possibly.) Did the receiver step out of bounds before coming back in to make the catch? (I have no idea, but he could have.)

Now during all of this time they didn't show US the replays they were checking (or any replays, for that matter) on the screen. I honestly can't remember what they showed because I erased it from my memory because it bored the crap out of me. Anyway, they wind up reversing the call because they say the receiver did step out of bounds before coming back in to make the catch.

Of course we're happy, but then Oregon's coach CHALLENGES THE CALL. First off, I didn't even know you could do that. And second, why the hell is he challenging something they just spent ten minutes reviewing? Our fans are booing like crazy. We see their coach talking to the refs and hear some sort of explanation, but it doesn't become completely clear until ANOTHER ten minutes when they REVERSE THE REVERSAL. You see, the ball was tipped by a USC defender before the Oregon receiver caught it. The rule is that if you go out of bounds and come back in, you can't be the first person to touch the ball. But since it was tipped, it didn't matter that he had stepped out.

The thing is, I'm not mad at the Oregon coach. Hell, he knows first-hand how incompetent PAC-10 refs are. I'm mad at the incompetent refs. Like my friend Austin said, they can't have looked at it for that long the first time and not seen that it was tipped. They just forgot (or never knew) about that rule. In fact, my Mom told me that watching it on TV they could see the refs consulting some kind of book. Is it too much to ask for the refs to know the freaking rules?

At this point all of the fans are made at the refs for wasting our time and being stupid. But Oregon was stupid later as they continued the hurry-up offense, stepping out of bounds, etc. with only eight minutes and then only five minutes to go though they were down by four scores. But they kept getting delay of game penalties, which ironically delayed the game for us ridiculously. In fact, Jed, Austin, and I left early, which I've NEVER done. I've stayed to listen to the band during 40-point blowouts, but I couldn't take this crap. (Plus, it was 11 PM and we were exhausted.) But I learned later that Oregon used two timeouts with like two minutes left in the game just because they got into our redzone again and were trying to score. Bastards. (But haha, they DIDN'T score. Serves them right.)

NEW NATIONAL TITLE PICTURE

Let's look at which teams have the best chance of making it to national title game. Obviously the winner of Ohio State/Michigan is there. The loser has a good argument for STILL getting to go, but I don't think that will happen and I really DON'T want it to happen. (Those reason in a moment.)

First up, Florida VS USC

USC is number three in the BCS and Florida is number four. If both win out, who gets to go? Well, USC's loss is clearly worse than Florida's. Though given what's happened recently losing to Auburn isn't as prestigious as it once was, I still say it's more respectable than losing to Oregon State by two. (Though, to be fair, USC played a lot better in their loss than Florida did in theirs.)

But do you compare the losses or the wins. Whose wins are more impressive? Cal is not the post-Tennessee juggernaut it once was, but they are still good. Notre Dame has not beaten anyone especially impressive and got trounced at home by Michigan. Meanwhile Florida has a tail-between-its-legs Florida State left, and then most likely Arkansas. Assuming Arkansas wins out, if Florida beats them they will share that defeated team with USC. But Florida beating them now would be a lot more impressive.

In conclusion, if both teams win out, I think Florida should get the nod.

Notre Dame VS Arkansas

Notre Dame is five in the BCS compared to Arkansas' seventh. So what if both win out? Both would have equally embarrassing home losses. But I can let more slide with Arkansas for a few reasons. 1. It was the first game of the year. 2. Their offense was entirely different than it is now. (Different QB, McFadden hurt, etc.) 3. They've been really impressive since then.

As far as impressive wins go, let's assume both Florida and USC play as well as their last game indicates. ND beating USC would be more impressive. Plus, they're already higher in the poll to begin with. And if both teams win out, the team that trounced ND will be higher in the BCS than the team that trounced Arkansas. While that hurts Arkansas, that also hurts ND badly if Michigan loses to Ohio State. No pollster in their right mind would put ND ahead of Michigan if they have the same record.

In conclusion, I think ND doesn't go if it wins out, and Arkansas only goes if it wins out, USC loses to Cal or ucla, and ND loses to USC. If both teams win out, I think that opens up the door for our Cinderella Story.

What about Rutgers?

I've said it before, and I'll say it again. If these guys go undefeated, they deserve their shot at all the marbles. Can you imagine how awesome it would be to be a redshirt senior on this team. You go 1-11 your first year and wind up in the national title game your last?

But people are saying that even if they win out, they still need a lot to happen in order to make it. But I'm not so convinced. Yes, they're way behind everyone above them, but they're ALREADY number two in the computer poll averages, right between Michigan and Ohio State. Now I think we can assume that whoever wins that game will automatically be number one in the computers, but don't count your chickens before they've hatched when dealing with BCS computers. Still, I think it's safe to say that. But I think the odds are good Rutgers will STAY number two if they win out, particularly because beating West Virginia would give them a big boost.

What's keeping them down are the Harris and Coaches Poll (bastards), where they are 7th and 8th, respectively. But look at the teams above them: Ohio State, Michigan, USC, Notre Dame, Florida, Arkansas, and West Virginia. They'll knock off WV themselves, and the other teams will knock each other out. If Rutgers wins out, I figure the LOWEST they'll end up in both polls is fifth. Depending on how far the Ohio State/Michigan loser falls (how lopsided it is), possibly fourth. That just might be enough.

As a USC fan, I obviously want USC to play for the championship. Despite the great story, if Rutgers wins out and USC goes ahead of them, I'll feel bad, but not that bad. But if both teams win out and Rutgers DOES go ahead of USC, I'll be the first to wish them good luck.

MICHIGAN-OHIO STATE

Some are saying that the loser of this game might not fall too far in the BCS, especially if it's a close game and especially if Ohio State is the loser. This could potentially set up a rematch for the national title game. I think this is a bad idea for several valid reasons, but I'm going to throw in some invalid ones so that I can have a...

TOP TEN REASONS THE OHIO STATE/MICHIGAN LOSER SHOULD NOT GET A REMATCH IN THE NATIONAL TITLE GAME

10. It would be kind of like deja vu, which feels weird and no one likes.

9. Though college football doesn't have a real playoff system, it has the closest thing to it. The regular season. Teams need to get better and pick up steam as the season rolls on. Losses later in the season count more than losses earlier, even if they're to better teams. Fair? Maybe not, but that's how a playoff works. A one-point loss to a great team in a playoff still knocks you out, so this is the closest thing. The most important thing is that teams should not be limping into a national championship game. Remember when Oklahoma got pantsed by K-State in the Big 12 Championship three years ago but still got the National Title berth? LSU might not have beaten them by much score-wise, but they slapped their asses that were still bare thanks to K-State.

8. Carr and Tressell would probably have to buy new outfits since neither would want the other to see them wearing the same thing again.

7. While some people might say the loser is still the second best team, thus deeming it fair to have the rematch, no one really WANTS this. The only people that want this are some Ohio State/Michigan fans. But not ALL of them want it, thus, it shouldn't happen.

6. Sportswriters would really have to struggle to hype it up as the "Game Of The Century."

5. It would weaken the rivalry. No one would care who won the regular season game. If the team that lost it won the championship, the other team wouldn't get any bragging rights for the first victory, even if it was a spanking. It would also weaken college football in general because essentially it would be a #1 VS #2 game that DIDN'T MATTER.

4. I'd have to come up with another list.

3. It would not be fair to the team that lost in the regular season. It's really hard to beat a good team twice. Why? Well, the team that lost can look at what they did wrong and fix it. The team that won doesn't have much to look at, especially if it's a landslide victory. So unless they can figure out what the other team is going to chang and counteract it, they don't have the upperhand in the rematch.

2. It would really really suck.

1. There would be no context for how good these teams are. No matter if it's a close game or a blow-out. Right now Ohio State's "impressive" win over Texas doesn't look so good. The Texas D has been horrible all year long. And Michigan's trouncing of ND doesn't look so hot now that ND has really struggled against weak opponents. Say Ohio State trounces Michigan in the regular season. What does that mean? That Ohio State is just that good? That Michigan was overhyped? That Ohio State is only okay and Michigan is really really bad? We won't know until we see both teams play again against good teams from other conferences. (That might still not solve it, but it will come closer.)

ALL BEATS ARE ON

Now's a good a time as any to tell you that for the past several weeks I've been betting on college football games, all thanks to an inadvertent comment by Diana Kroemer. I've tried several methods, most of which involved mixing parlays with straight-up bets. But last Saturday I placed five straight-up bets. One game pushed (i.e. I didn't win or lose money.), but I won the other four, accumulating a grand total of $36.36.

Before you get too excited, this put my balance back to $93. I started by putting in $100. (And it actually gave me an extra $10, so I'm more in the hole than it looks but not with my own money.)

I'll bet through the rest of the season, then bowl games, then take out whatever's left. Here's hoping it's in the black.

PREDICTIONS

Before I get to the two big rivalries, let me just say that I think Rutgers is going to lose to Cincinnati because they're coming off an emotional high and too busy looking ahead. You heard it here first folks.

Now there are two major rivalry games this weekend and one minor one. Anything can happen in a rivalry game, so it's hard to predict. You throw stats out the window (in most cases) and any formula is flawed. So I might as well make one up and use it now. Which I will. Figure out whichever team needs it more, and the other will win. When it's hard to tell, pick your favorite. (This will probably be as accurate as any other existing or yet-to-be-created formula.)

Perhaps you've heard about the Ohio State/Michigan game. Obviously you're thinking neither team needs it more, but you're wrong. Yes, Carr needs to prove that he can beat Tressell at Michigan, but he's already got the monkey off his back from a horrible season last year to currently be undefeated. As long as they don't get embarrassed, he's had a great year. (Not saying people won't be mad, but you have to look at the big picture.)

Ohio State, meanwhile, has a lot more to live up to. They were expected to make it to the National Title game and are one game away from doing so. They would have made it last year if not for giving up a miraculous comeback to Vince Young (I mean Texas. Wait...no I don't.) If they don't win the game, it will be a HUGE disappointment.

Therefore, Michigan wins. And here's the thing. The game's been hyped up beyond all belief. This happened twice last year (USC/ND and USC/Texas) and managed to live up to it both times. The one the year before (USC/OU) did not. I don't think this one will either. Some are predicting a Ohio State blowout, but I haven't see any predict a Michigan blowout. Well, I am. Michigan does to Smith what it did to Quinn...make him make really stupid mistakes.

Now even though this is the biggest game in the country, there will be one state where no one is watching. That's because Auburn and Alabama play each other at the same time. Alabama needs a win to secure a winning season and to stop an Auburn streak. Auburn needs a win to make up for its embarrassing loss last week. I think they need it about the same, but I'm giving the edge to Auburn in an ugly, low scoring game. (Say maybe 18-14 or 21-14 so I can win some money in Blanton Reed's point-square thing.)

Though not a real rivalry, there's been a thing between USC and Cal for the past few years, ever since they beat us when they were unranked and nearly knocked us off the next year. Cal is going to be out for blood after losing to Arizona. USC needs to win now that they know their fate is in their own hands. Obviously USC needs it more. So Cal wins? Nay. This doesn't follow the formula because it's not a real rivalry.

NEW NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP PREDICTION

USC beats Michigan in a much better game than the Rose Bowl of three years ago, but by a similar method of stuffing their Heisman-hyped running back.

2006-11-15T23:35:00.000-08:00

Is the BCS mentioned in Revelation?

I don’t believe it is, but if it was, Notre Dame being rated appropriately by the national media would probably be a sure sign the apocalypse is upon us (although perhaps one could make an argument about the Four Horseman).

With all the shake-up of “Let’s try our darndest to get Rutgers into the Championship Game” Saturday (only Jarvis Moss and USC didn’t get the memo), the new AP poll has defied general logic. A one-loss Notre Dame team ranked #6, with their only loss coming to Michigan, but Wisconsin in the exact same situation at #12? Undefeated Boise State at #13, behind two-loss Texas and LSU? USC (the new Notre Dame?) loses to Oregon State nigh on 2 weeks ago and is now #4? Since Sunday, I’ve searching in vain for the logic that guides the AP voters to come to these conclusions. After listening to and reading any coverage I can get my hands on, there seems to be two schools of thought on rankings in college football: 1) Best team (which favors Power Conferences and ability) vs. 2) Performance (how a team does with their schedule).

It seems like the “Best team” school of thought is prevailing in the rankings this year, as evidenced by the AP Poll. But, this logic devalues actual wins and losses. LSU would have to lose 3 games to drop under Boise State. Sadly, the ABC/ESPN factor has an effect on voters based on who they show, which is determined before the year. How many primetime Wisconsin games have you seen this year? This logic also produces the “different team than earlier in the year” argument, which is ridiculous to the nth degree. Too bad we can’t have Week 7 Texas play Week 10 Ohio State, or Week 9 Arkansas play Week 1 USC, because that would solve everything. Let’s see if we can get H.G. Wells on the phone. Perhaps Bill & Ted? I know Bill is available.

Equally troubling is the performance aspect, because it sets you up with an underwhelming (and inherently lopsided) match-up for the Championship: Rutgers vs. Michigan, catch the Scarlet fever! Ohio State vs. Boise State: oh yeah! Clearly, a team’s actual ability does matter and certain wins are more impressive than others. Unfortunately, this isn’t the fault of the non-traditional powers. If Boise State could play in the Pac-10 or schedule a non-conference game against a big school, they would. To be honest, I think the Big East teams are overrated. Who have they beaten besides each other? If West Virginia was overrated to start, Louisville and Rutgers aren’t quite as good as some believe.

As illogical as the voters are and as flawed as the system may be, these arguments are what makes College football more enjoyable (and conducive to media coverage) than the NFL. Every week we can argue endlessly about rankings and strength of schedule. Not to mention that the BCS is endlessly better than the feudal Bowl system that preceded it. Think Rutgers or Boise State would’ve had a shot playing the Poulan Weedeater Bowl? The next 3 weeks will tie up more loose ends and solve more issues than we realize. It seems quite unlikely a playoff system will be implemented any time soon, so the BCS is the best we can expect for now and will deliver a very intriguing National Championship Game.

2006-11-08T20:40:00.000-08:00

The Kuhn Quarterback Recap (Week 10)

WHAT I SAID: So the big match-up is tonight, undefeated Louisville against undefeated West Virginia. This could go either way, but I'm going to say West Virginia wins it because Louisville can't stop their running QB.

WHAT ACTUALLY HAPPENED: I was right about the fact that Louisville couldn't stop Pat White. The man ran for four touchdowns. Yet Louisville still found a way to win. I've heard a lot of complaints about the lack of defense in this game and how neither looked like they belong in a national championship game. Might I remind people of last year's national championship game? Not exactly a defensive battle. Yes, probably better defense than these two teams have, but if Louisville can put up more points than the other team, who cares how many they let them score?

WHAT I SAID: In other news, look for USC, Auburn, and Notre Dame to win but not beat the spread.

WHAT ACTUALLY HAPPENED: I was right about Auburn and Notre Dame. I swear Auburn, can you beat ANY spread? Other than when you were predicted to lose to Florida, I'm not sure if you have. USC shutout Stanford and put up 42 points against them. They also got a special teams touchdown off a blocked field goal, which was good. However, this does not determine anything because it was against Stanford. I think the second-string flag football team from my fraternity could beat Stanford.

WHAT I SAID: I'm picking South Carolina to upset the Hogs.

WHAT ACTUALLY HAPPENED: Only lost by 6 but couldn't pull it off.

NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP GAME

As of the current BCS standings, it looks like Louisville will play in the national title game if they win out. I'm heard a number of people (though mostly my roommate Mike) complaining about them and how their conference sucks. Well, at least it's not the ACC or the Big Ten. I'd put it on par with the PAC-10 this season, maybe even the Big 12. Even if West Virginia and Rutgers wind up being the only two tough teams they face, beating both of them would be really impressive. And let's not forget that Louisville deserves some credit for putting Miami on its schedule. How were they supposed to know that Miami was going to suck this year?

Last but certainly not least, don't forget that Louisville is STILL playing without its star player (Michael Bush) and played a number of games without him or its starting QB. You can't name any other team that would still be undefeated if it had done that. (Think of the four remaining undefeated teams and take away both of those players. There you go.)

I've liked Louisville for awhile now, and I'd be happy to see them make a national title game. In fact, my new prediction is that they'll play Michigan and BEAT them by a touchdown.

However, I love the Rutgers story too, so maybe I root for them to beat Louisville. Thing is, Rutgers going undefeated might not get them to the national title game. I know what you're thinking. "Rutgers? Seriously?" Well, if they do go undefeated this season, when do you think will be the next time they do that? Not for a very long time. So don't they deserve a shot at least? If they get creamed, maybe that will make them think twice about going undefeated from now on.

IT'S STILL A WIN

I've also heard people talking about the not great performances by Ohio State, Michigan, and Florida over weak opponents. Ohio State had control of the game the whole time, they just didn't blow them out. Michigan nearly committed suicide on the field. I'm not referring to their actual performance because I didn't see it. But if they had lost (and it was a possibility), they probably would have done that. They deserve some jeers maybe, but hey, they still one and have done so every week, which is better than every other team except four.

I suppose Auburn has some right to say that Florida's poor performance means they should fall down. Auburn probably should be ahead of Florida in the BCS. They both have one loss, and Auburn beat Florida. But you can't argue with the computers that feel that Auburn's home blow-out loss to Arkansas was a much worse loss than Florida's barely loss (10 points but really 3) on the road to Auburn. They're right on the money there.

MY PREDICTIONS

Louisville plays at Rutgers Thursday night. Either way a Cinderella story continues. But I learned my lesson about picking against Louisville, so I pick them.

South Carolina plays at Florida. It will be the first time Spurrier has been on that field while not playing for or coaching the Gators (for a game, that is). I think destiny is in the making, and South Carolina badly needs a good solid win. They pull the upset.

Georgia at Auburn. This is a Georgia team that's lost to both Vanderbilt AND Kentucky. Which will make it so much worse when they beat Auburn. Don't say I didn't warn you, tigers.

Tennessee at Arkansas. Arkansas keeps rolling, and maybe after those other SEC teams lose it will finally get some love in the polls.

Oregon at USC. We always have trouble with running QBs. ALWAYS. Sometimes we adjust. Sometimes we do not. I think this is one of the times we adjust. Whether or not it's in time to win comfortably or win barely I don't know, but I do think we'll win. We'd better. It's Homecoming, and I'll be there.

Oh, and the other three unbeatens (Ohio State, Michigan, and Boise State) stay that way.

2006-11-02T13:22:00.000-08:00

The Kuhn Quarterback Recap (Week 9)

So my predictions from last week were that no unbeatens would fall, and that Oklahoma and Miami would get upsets. OU got theirs, and as we all know, one of the unbeatens fell. So let's get to the matter at hand.

USC lost to Oregon State. Did I see this coming at all? Not really. Initially after we won our first two games, I felt certain we would go 8-0. But after our recent struggles, I wasn't so sure. Plus, Oregon State had won its last two games. Still, I didn't think we'd lose.

Losing to them is not horrible, but it's not respectable. What's the equivalent in other conferences? Well, if Texas had lost to Texas Tech that would be similar. I suppose the closest thing in the SEC would be South Carolina, though with Spurrier as their coach they're a bit ahead of Oregon State.

The point is, this is not the most horrible thing in the world. I mean, we lost to an equally bad or perhaps worse Cal team a few years ago and finished the season as an amazing team. That could still happen. I'm not horrified by this loss. Now, if we lose to Stanford, I will cease to write anymore of these football blogs for the rest of the season.

I didn't actually see any of the game, which made it worse. I was working all day, so I checked scores at the Apple store during my break. I saw that the halftime score was 16-10, Oregon State. Then later my boss told me it was 23-10. I went during my last break thinking the game would be over. What I found was that it was 33-25, Oregon State. USC had the ball with a 4th and 2 on OSU's 40. I panicked, and then after some quick math realized we were only down by 8. A touchdown and a two-point conversion. I madly pressed refresh until I saw that we completed a long pass play to get to their 15 or so. (I later learned from my roommates that the catch by Steve Smith was reviewed because he was BARELY in-bounds. Like the cleat on his shoe landed in-bounds first. Regardless, it wasn't overturned.) I yelled like a madman, and people were staring at me. I kept following it until we scored, and then something told me we wouldn't get the two-point conversion. We didn't because it was batted down at the line of scrimmage. (Though from watching the footage of that play, I don't think the pass would have been completed anyway.)

I'm actually somewhat happy about this outcome for three reasons. One, if it had gone into overtime I would have been really late coming back from my break. Two, from what I hear Booty played like a champion during the late third and fourth quarter, finally completing deep passes. And third, it would have been disastrous for us if we had won that game.

Think about it. USC gave up the ball four times and did not get it back any in return. They were down 33-17 going into the fourth quarter. You're not supposed to win a game like that. And if we had, the team probably would have gotten it into their head that they could win ANY game, no matter how they played.

Now that they know they can play like they did late in the game, hopefully they'll start playing like that for the WHOLE game. The best case scenario is that they learn from this and win out the season, winding up in the Rose Bowl or (with a WHOLE LOT OF LUCK), the National Championship game still.

I mean, as a fan, what would you rather have happened. Have USC eke out another close victory only to get stomped by Cal and possibly Notre Dame? Or have them lose a game, regroup, and finish the season strong? I'll take the latter.

P.S. Remember, remember, Pete Carroll has never lost in November.

THE NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP GAME

Ivan on ESPN brings up the interesting point that if Ohio State and Michigan play each other as the only undefeated teams left (a high possibility, nt including Boise State who doesn't count), then wouldn't the loser be considered the #2 still? I mean, the job of the BCS is to pit the top two teams against each other, not the two that would be the most popular match-up. People wouldn't like a rematch against these two especially if they just played, of course. If Michigan is the loser, Auburn, Texas, and Florida would have a legitimate argument that they should be number two. But if Ohio State loses, shouldn't it still be higher than the other teams for winning all of its games? Should be interesting?

I still say West Virginia will wind up there. Probably playing Michigan. However, Auburn still has a good shot, and I think what they should hope for is to stay out of the SEC Championship game and STILL go. Let Arkansas lose one SEC game, and Florida lose to Florida State. Then no matter who wins, their having two losses will keep them behind Auburn. I'm just saying, don't be surprised if it happens.

PREDICTIONS

So the big match-up is tonight, undefeated Louisville against undefeated West Virginia. This could go either way, but I'm going to say West Virginia wins it because Louisville can't stop their running QB.

In other news, look for USC, Auburn, and Notre Dame to win but not beat the spread.

I'm picking South Carolina to upset the Hogs.

SOMETHING FUNNY

So Notre Dame beat Navy again, making it the 5 billionth time in a row or whatever. You gotta think, does the Navy coach start the year by riling up the team and saying, "Guys, I really believe we can do it this year! 12-1, baby!" The new athletes look around confused until the older ones explain that they will of course lose to Notre Dame.

Seriously, if any Navy coach ever beats Notre Dame, that man should never be fired. I don't care if he loses every other game that season and every game the next. He beat Notre Dame. It would be like a guy that's a horrible rifle shot getting lucky and shooting a squirrel from about a mile away (assuming people were there to see it, of course). Whenever his friends brought up stories about his shooting, they wouldn't talk about all the times he was such a horrible shot. They'd talk about the one time he got lucky and make him sound like a marksmen.

That said, I hope I never live to see that day that a Navy coach shoots the squirrel.

2006-10-22T12:51:00.000-07:00

Year 6 of Mike Vick

The constant hoopla surrounding Michael Vick since entering the NFL hasn’t really died down, as many people would’ve expected by now. While those great expectations have evolved into intense scrutiny for many common observers, there is a still a clear distinction between Vick Supporters and Vick Skeptics. Neither side seems to have given any ground. Since it’s Vick’s 6th year in the league, I expected conclusive evidence supporting one of the sides to emerge by now. In my opinion, that evidence is conspicuously absent. He’s made some amazing plays and wins more often then not when he’s on the field (today against Pittsburgh or the 1st road victory @ Lambeau in the playoffs?). He also makes very poor decisions that have cost the Falcons and can’t seem to stay healthy. So, what is Vick: A bonafide 1st round bust, a guy stuck in the wrong position, a revolutionary at the QB position?

The answer is all of the above. Despite the obstacles, Mike Vick has an excellent opportunity to be successful. There are three main reasons Vick has yet to be consistently successful:

1) Mike Vick- When it comes to the name thing, it’s almost like Mike Vick is becoming Michael Vick’s alter ego. That aside, he’s simply trying too hard. He’s working so hard to convince everyone he is a superstar and that he’ll fit in the traditional QB role. The most ridiculous incident was the “Now I proved myself as a great passer” routine with the media after a good passing game. It reeked of a childish “I told you so” vibe. Right now, he’s his own biggest enemy. When he starts to think of himself as a football player first and be more open to adapting his style, he’ll be more successful.

2) Offensive Coordinators- West Coast Offense?!?! Really? The system is the polar opposite of Vick’s abilities that focus on improvisation and unpredictability. If Vick isn’t successful in the NFL, a big part of the blame has to be on the coordinators and coaches for putting a square peg in a round hole. There are two types of players in football: a) players that fit into your offense (99% of the league) and b) players you build your offense around. Vick is clearly the latter. His abilities are so unique that it’s silly not to build an offense tailored to his specific skills. I’ll talk a little later about what I would do if I was in their position.

3) NFL Culture- the NFL (much like movies and television) is an unoriginal, copycat culture. Most teams don’t veer from the established norms and stick to the script. The only exception, of course, is the league’s most successful teams and coaches. However, once someone finds success, other teams try to mimic their system to minimal gain. Then the next trend will arise and sweep coaches away once again. Success favors the innovators but coaches and teams don’t attempt to think outside the box for one simple reason: job security. There are a lot of people out there afraid to take chances, so they play it safe by sticking to the “norm”. For Michael Vick to be successful, he needs a coach and coordinator willing to take a huge chance.

Quite simply, Vick needs to be in a 2 QB offense with a more traditional style QB. This isn’t a revolutionary idea, as I’ve heard different people suggest it before. However, the Falcons need to take it a step further. They need to play both Vick and Schaub at the same time. It sounds a little gimmicky, but people said that about the Spread Offense too. Not only would they split snaps, depending on the situation, they would be on the field together for 15-25% of plays. This would allow them to keep the defense off balance, which makes Vick doubly effective. He can run, throw, catch and most importantly become a decoy (something he doesn’t do enough now). No matter where he is on the field, he will draw the attention of the defense. This would also cut down on his touches, minimizing his risk for injury but maximizing his impact, even when he doesn’t have the ball. This is the only way to utilize his full potential as a revolutionary player, a true “slash”.

I seriously doubt this will ever happen for the reasons I pointed out before, mainly Vick himself. He wants to be a QB too badly to accept a different role. Not to mention he makes so much money that it would be tough for the franchise to even consider a different role for Vick. But if the Falcons want to win a Super Bowl with their current roster, they’ll need to seriously consider finding a new way to maximize Vick’s abilities.

2006-10-18T17:01:00.000-07:00

The Kuhn Quarterback Mid-Season Recap

So it's the middle of the season, and I made a lot of predictions before the season started. It's time to see how many came true, how many did not, how many could still come true, and how many cannot. Basically, it's a measure of my self-worth. Plus I might make some new predictions.

PAC-10

WHAT I SAID: "We might not blow out all of our opponents, but we'll win. A lot."

"In fact, we're still predicted to win the PAC-10 again. I agree with this, though I don't necessarily think it will be outright. (In other words, I think we'll probably tie with another team's PAC-10 record but will have beaten them head-to-head, thus we'll get the BCS bid.) Another possibility is that we wind up being the Oregon team of last season or the Cal team of the year before. We go undefeated except for one loss to another PAC-10 team that DOES go undefeated. But the difference is that we have enough love now that we won't get stuck in the Holiday Bowl like they did. If that happens, we'll still get a BCS bid."

"The saddest thing is that I think our 27-game home winning streak (along with our regular season game winning streak and possibly PAC-10 winning streak) will come to an end this season. We just face all of our toughest opponents at home. There's Cal. And Oregon (our homecoming game, for crying out loud). And Nebraska. And Arizona State (though that's at about the mid-point of the season, so hopefully by that point they'll have already reached their annual mid-season collapse). And then finally...Notre Dame."

WHAT'S ACTUALLY HAPPENED: If I had known USC would take my words so seriously, I'd have said that we'd beat ever team by 30 points. After two impressive victories, USC has struggled in four consecutive games to opponents that we probably shouldn't have to struggle against.

Neither Oregon nor Cal are undefeated, but I could still see us losing to one of them, more likely Cal than Oregon. Unfortunately, I don't see Cal losing to any of the other PAC-10 teams, which means they would get the Rose Bowl bid outright because I doubt enough other teams would lose for them to go to the National Championship game if they win out. Still, if we lose to Cal but then follow it up with impressive wins against Notre Dame and ucla, we could still get a BCS at-large bid. So I think there's still a great chance that we'll wind up in a BCS game, but it could literally be any of them.

At this point if we lose, it will be at home. So I hope it doesn't happen.

WHAT I SAID: "Washington & Washington State suck it up."

WHAT'S ACTUALLY HAPPENED: I was totally wrong about this one as these two teams have shown the most improvement in the conference from last year. Washington has already won 4 games, doubling its total from last year. Unfortunately, they lost a talented and capable QB for the rest of the season, and they have tough games left against Cal, Arizona State, and Oregon. I think they lose all three of those, then beat Stanford, meaning the Apple Cup against Wazzu would be for bowl eligibility. Much better than being played to see which team isn't on the very bottom of the conference standings, as it was last year.

Washington State has also won 4 games, already equaling their total for last year. With games remaining against Oregon, ucla, Arizona, and Arizona State, I think they'll be bowl eligible before they get to the Apple Cup. But if that game's for bowl eligibility for both teams, it will definitely be worth watching.

WHAT I SAID: "Cal and Oregon continue to impress."

WHAT'S ACTUALLY HAPPENED: It looked like Cal was going down the toilet after the first game, but since then they've looked amazing. Oregon is Public Enemy #1 in Oklahoma (or PAC-10 officials are, rather), but they showed their weaknesses against Cal. I expect them to lose a few more games. Cal, however, has a great chance at winning out.

WHAT I SAID: "Oregon State gets a little better."

WHAT'S ACTUALLY HAPPENED: Their wins have been impressive (scores at least), and their losses have been depressing. Last year they finished 5-6. This year they are 3-3 with 7 games left. That extra game gives them a better shot at becoming bowl eligible, so I say they do.

WHAT I SAID: "Arizona State goes from dark-horse national title contender to big choker."

WHAT'S ACTUALLY HAPPENED: Exactly that, and a lot sooner than I expected. And I wasn't expecting the blow-outs Oregon and Cal had against them. Can people please stop talking about them as a dark horse national title contender every year when this happens every year?

WHAT I SAID: "Stanford and Arizona improve from last year."

WHAT'S ACTUALLY HAPPENED: Last year Stanford finished 5-6. This year it doesn't look like they'll be able to win a game. Now that Washington's QB is hurt, they have a shot at that one. Other than that, all losses.

Arizona has already equaled its win total from last year (3) and its win total against PAC-10 teams (1). They got that PAC-10 win a week earlier than last season, so I guess that counts as improvement.

WHAT I SAID: "ucla takes a big fall back to the suck it's used to."

WHAT'S ACTUALLY HAPPENED: ucla's 4-2 but still has at Notre Dame, Wazzu, at Cal, Oregon State, at Arizona State, and USC. I'll give them Oregon State, but I think they lose the rest and don't qualify for a bowl.

BIG 12

WHAT I SAID: "Vince was good, and they're going to miss him. Especially when they lose to Ohio State. They might wind up winning the Big 12 again if they can get past Oklahoma. Since the Sooners have a new quarterback, expect the Red River Shootout to actually be a close game for the first time in years.

PREDICTION: Loss to Ohio State and one other team, but they'll probably play for the Big 12 Championship."

WHAT'S ACTUALLY HAPPENED: The Red River Shootout wasn't close, and Texas is looking like they won't lose another game. But I think they will. Still, I'll say they win the Big 12.

WHAT I SAID: "Big 12 North continues to suck as a whole."

WHAT'S ACTUALLY HAPPENED:Thanks to Nebraska and Missouri both being 6-1, it's not that far behind the Big 12 South. But Colorado is really bringing it down.

WHAT I SAID: "Texas Tech puts up big numbers but can't play against a good defense."

WHAT'S ACTUALLY HAPPENED: It lost to Colorado, so it can't even play against a HORRIBLE defense.

WHAT I SAID: "Oklahoma relies too heavily on Adrian Petersen resulting in losses (and him losing the Heisman)."

WHAT ACTUALLY HAPPENED: Their two losses can be chalked up mostly to lack of a good passing game. And even though it was a fluke accident, they used Peterson so much he's now out for the season.

WHAT I SAID: "Nebraska improves. Baylor improves a lot...and (yes, I'm serious) makes a bowl game."

WHAT'S ACTUALLY HAPPENED: The first one definitely has. Baylor is 3-5 and needs to win 3 of its next 5 to qualify for a bowl. It has Kansas, Texas A&M, Texas Tech, Oklahoma State, and Oklahoma left. I think they'll pull it off.

BIG EAST

WHAT I SAID: "No offense to a great offensive team (West Virginia), but their schedule is a cake-walk. If they can get past Louisville, they're in the National Title Game. Which is why they'll be in the National Title Game. The only question in my mind is who the other team will be."

WHAT'S ACTUALLY HAPPENED: I don't think anyone could foresee that Rutgers would still be undefeated at this point, but I can't believe I completely overlooked Louisville. They are very impressive, especially since they lost two players (one for the season and another for multiple games) that were not only their main offensive weapons but also dark horse Heisman Trophy candidates. Considering that they are still undefeated, they are the most impressive team in the conference. Still, I think West Virginia plays in the National Title Game.

INDEPENDENTS

WHAT I SAID: "People are already talking about their (Notre Dame's) rematch with Ohio State. Not going to happen, since neither team will be there. In fact, Notre Dame will finish with AT LEAST two losses in the regular season. (And I really hope one of them is to us.)"

WHAT'S ACTUALLY HAPPENED: One loss down, one to go.

WHAT I SAID: "Navy continues their losing streak."

WHAT'S ACTUALLY HAPPENED: I realized this wasn't too clear, but I meant their losing streak against Notre Dame. Considering they've lost their starting QB, I feel safe about this one.

WHAT I SAID: "Army has already been offered a spot in a bowl game if they can finish 6-6. They'll come so close they can taste it, but it ain't happening."

WHAT'S ACTUALLY HAPPENED: Army's 3-4, and in order to get that bowl bid they need to beat three teams out of TCU, Tulane, Air Force, Notre Dame, and Navy. I say they finished 5-7, falling just short.

BIG TEN

WHAT I SAID: "I'm not saying they (Michigan) go undefeated, but look for them to make up a lot of ground from last season's disappointment by winning the Big Ten. They'll look especially impressive after they upset both Notre Dame AND Ohio State. And then wind up losing to USC in an even nastier version of the 2004 Rose Bowl."

WHAT'S ACTUALLY HAPPENED: Was I right about Notre Dame or was I right? Let's put it this way. When Brady Quinn's first child is born, it will cry not because the doctor spanks it but rather out of shame for its father's performance against the Wolverines. That child will basically be allergic to blue and gold.

In order to get the Rose Bowl bid, Michigan would need to lose BEFORE Ohio State and then beat them. If they win out, they'll of course be in the National Title game. More likely is they lose to Ohio State and still get an at-large bid for the Rose Bowl game. But I'm not so sure USC could beat them senseless.

WHAT I SAID: "Penn State of course can't repeat the great season from last year. But they'll still impress...especially when they avenge the loss to Michigan from last year."

WHAT'S ACTUALLY HAPPENED: They made it a game, but they couldn't get the win.

WHAT I SAID: "Ohio State's good but not quite good enough."

WHAT'S ACTUALLY HAPPENED: Actually, maybe they are good enough. I'm now changing my mind and saying they win out. But if Michigan DOES beat them, remember that I'm the one that said it first before I changed my mind.

WHAT I SAID: "Iowa complains about not being ranked high enough, does horribly, then finishes well enough so that they can complain again next year."

WHAT ACTUALLY HAPPENED: Was there complaining? Yes. Did they do horribly? Got blown out by Ohio State at night at home and lost to Indiana, I'd say yes. Will they finish well? A win against Michigan would be a good start.

WHAT I SAID: "Emotion will take Northwestern a lot further than you'd think."

WHAT'S ACTUALLY HAPPENED: Guess emotion isn't a good fuel after all.

ACC

WHAT I SAID: "I hate to say it, but they'll (Miami) return to their winning ways behind a much-improved quarterback."

WHAT'S ACTUALLY HAPPENED: I'm happy to say that instead they have returned to their thuggish ways behind a much-improved brawl method of using helmets has weapons.

WHAT I SAID: "Florida State blows any chance of a national title with another close loss to Miami."

WHAT'S ACTUALLY HAPPENED: They managed to beat Miami in a game almost uglier than that brawl, but a few losses later, and they're out of the national title hunt.

WHAT I SAID: "Boston College, Georgia Tech, and Clemson all continue to be good but blow close games."

WHAT'S ACTUALLY HAPPENED: Boston College? 2-point loss to NC State. Georgia Tech? 4-point loss to Notre Dame. Clemson? 1-point loss to Boston College in overtime. The jury rests, your honor.

WHAT I SAID: "North Carolina State gets a step closer to its good ole Philip Rivers' days."

WHAT'S ACTUALLY HAPPENED: After embarrassing losses to Akron and Southern Mississippi, NC State beat ranked Boston College and ranked Florida State. Then they lost to Wake Forest. But to their credit, Wake Forest was undefeated at the time and currently only has one loss. So the jury's still out on this one.

WHAT I SAID: "Virginia Tech will have a better image without Vick but a much worse record."

WHAT'S ACTUALLY HAPPENED: Last year they won 8 in a row before losing one. This year they won 4 in a row before losing 2 in a row. But at least they've stayed out of the headlines.

SEC

WHAT I SAID: "A good season is without a doubt. A great season could definitely be in the works. Another undefeated season? So soon? Hey, if USC could do it, Auburn can too. At the least, they should be playing for the SEC crown."

WHAT'S ACTUALLY HAPPENED: Auburn should still be undefeated, but their run defense took their bye week when there was actually a game scheduled. They could still play for the SEC crown. Or, things could work out so they play for the National Title without even playing in the SEC Championship Game.

WHAT I SAID: "No average teams here. Just great ones and ones that suck a lot."

WHAT'S ACTUALLY HAPPENED: Here are the records for all the SEC teams: 6-1, 6-1, 5-1, 5-1, 5-2, 5-2, 5-2, 4-2 & then 3-4, 3-4, 2-5, 2-5. That gap will only get bigger.

WHAT I SAID: "Alabama's luck is over as they greet another losing season."

WHAT'S ACTUALLY HAPPENED: The Tide has already won 5 games and still has Mississippi State and Florida International. This means they should finish above .500. That's assuming, of course, that Florida International doesn't play the game wearing brass knuckles, which might be too much of an assumption.

WHAT I SAID: "Florida might play for the SEC Championship, but a close, devastating loss someone in the season knocks them out of the national title hunt."

WHAT'S ACTUALLY HAPPENED: War Eagle!

WHAT I SAID: "Tennessee does a lot better than last season but still loses some it shouldn't."

WHAT'S ACTUALLY HAPPENED: They've kidnapped a West Coast offense and refused to let it go. But how did they lose to Florida with that kind of offensive firepower?

WHAT I SAID: "South Carolina continues to improve and surprises everyone...more than once."

WHAT'S ACTUALLY HAPPENED: I don't think anyone expected them to play Auburn so closely. Or to struggle so much against Mississippi State. So that's two surprised already.

RESULT: So, please comment and tell me how you think I've done so far.

2006-10-17T23:39:00.000-07:00

The Kuhn Quarterback Recap (Week 7)

This one's coming a little earlier in the week because it's the middle of the season, and later this week I need to post my Mid-Season Review and see how accurate my predictions have been.

I'm going to USC's homecoming game on November 11th, and luckily for me we have three bye weeks between now and then. Well, actually we only have a bye this week and then play Oregon State and Stanford the next two weeks, but it's more or less the same thing.

THE UNBEATENS

WHAT I SAID: I'm predicting two unbeatens to fall, leaving only 7.

WHAT ACTUALLY HAPPENED: Two unbeatens fell, leaving only seven. Once again I was right about the number but only guessed half of the losing teams correctly.

1. Auburn's emotions were so high, it's surprising they didn't do better against Florida than they did. Their offense was adequate but not great. Their two touchdowns came from special teams and defense. (And the defensive one was after time expired as Florida was tossing the ball around like a hot potato in a desperate attempt to score.) Still, Florida lost, continuing the curse of the AP #2 team.

THE OTHER ONE I THOUGHT WOULD LOSE

1. The thing is, I didn't actually think Penn State would beat Michigan, but I made that prediction at the beginning of the season and decided it was worth sticking to. Penn State kept it a game, so they had a chance to win the entire time.

THE OTHER ONE THAT DID LOSE

1. Texas A&M beat Missouri with smashmouth football. Missouri could still have a great season, so I hope they don't let this loss get them down too much.

Some game specific stuff:

WHAT I SAID: "West Virginia will beat Syracuse by finally opening up their passing game. But Syracuse will prove they're better than you think. (Of course, you probably think they really suck, so it shouldn't be that hard.)"

WHAT ACTUALLY HAPPENED: Half-time score? 17-14, West Virginia. Final score? 41-17, West Virginia. They didn't do it with the passing game though. Instead, WV's QB Pat White RAN for 247 yards and three touchdowns on only 14 carries, or an average of 16.8 a carry. Since it was the QB running and not Slaton, it's a little closer to opening up the passing game. Seriously, I don't think WV can keep winning if all they do is run, but for now "if it ain't broke, don't fix it" is working well enough.

WHAT I SAID: "Rutgers will have a tough test with Navy. I think they eke it out though and keep the dream season alive for another week."

WHAT ACTUALLY HAPPENED: Rutgers cruised past Navy 34-0, but we still don't know how legit they are. I mean, for one thing, it's Navy. But the main thing is that Navy's QB got hurt in the first quarter, (He's out for the season, one of many season ending injuries that occurred last Saturday.) and none of the back-up QBs could work the option like him. Still, Rutgers remains undefeated, so give them the credit they deserve.

WHAT I SAID: "Louisville crushes Cincinnati."

WHAT ACTUALLY HAPPENED: Despite Brohm's return to QB, Louisville had some trouble putting Cincinnati away, 23-17. But there are two important things to remember. One, Cincinnati is a team that was only down 13-7 to Ohio State at halftime of that game, though they did eventually get crushed. And now that Brohm has had a game back, he should get better quickly.

WHAT I SAID: "Arizona State is way ahead of schedule for its midseason collapse. Of course, it has played Cal and Oregon, two of the best teams in the PAC-10. They got crushed by both, so it's hard to say how good they actually are. But considering that USC is way overdue for another crushing, especially at home, I think USC pounds them."

WHAT ACTUALLY HAPPENED: Well, at first it looked as if it would be exactly that. But then our team channeled its inner Michigan State and just let tie it up. Then USC went on a 12-play, 74-yard touchdown drive where Chauncey Washington carried 10 times for 64 yards. Either Chauncey's that good, or Arizona State kept thinking, "There's no way they'll give it to him again."

Then Arizona State started getting penalties, and our defense held them to a 4th and 20 from their own 30-something. There was only around 1:20 left in the game, and ASU only had two timeouts left. So I figured they'd go for it, not get it, and we'd win.

Instead, they PUNTED. Granted, not getting that 4th down means you lose the game. But punting resulted in the same thing. I was verbally abusing the Arizona State coach for being such an idiot, but my roommates didn't see it that way. But remember, with the new clock rules, the clock starts running as soon as the ball is set for the other team, not AFTER the 1st down play is run. Add in the twenty-five second play clock plus a few seconds running the play and resetting the ball, and the punt is risky even under the OLD rules with only two timeouts or under the new ones with all three. But combine the two, and you're basically giving up the game.

So what happened? ASU used one timeout before the 1st down play. We ran the ball up the middle for about a yard gain, and they used another one. Another run up the middle, and then on third down we simply kneeled it and didn't even have to run a play on fourth down. My roommates acknowledged how right I had been.

ASU's coach later said that he thought the chances were better to hope for a turnover than converting on 4th and 20. I think he just didn't have faith in his offense. Or maybe he punted and then found out about the new clock rules and was like, "Oh sh**!"

Now for my take on the game. For the third straight week, USC has been in a position to lose the game. Though this one was further than the others because the other team was going for the tie instead of the win and wasn't headed for the endzone when the clock ran out, I view it as the worst. Why? Because we blew a 21-point lead and got outscored in the second half. This is not what USC does.

But the thing is, I don't really fault the defense. I blame Booty. The defense gave up one touchdown near the end of the first half. That's their fault. But on the first play of the second half, Booty got sacked and fumbled, setting up an easy drive for ASU. Yes, our D could have stepped up and held them to only a field goal (or gotten a turnover), but momentum was on ASU's side, and they had a very short field. I don't blame our D for that.

The fumble by Booty was unforgivable though. I'm pretty lenient on QB fumbles because they aren't used to getting hit while holding the ball. Or rather, in most offense systems that's not how it's designed to be. If a QB gets blindsided, I'm always shocked when he DOESN'T fumble. But even if he sees the sack coming and is trying to get away or make a play, I cut him some slack.

This was not the case with Booty though. First off, the contact from the defender is not what caused him to drop the ball. The guy hit him around the waist and was pushing him back. Booty was resigned to the fact that he was about to be sack. And as far as sack's go, it was on the soft side. Booty was more or less sitting down really quickly, landing right on his butt. But as he's falling down, his hands apparently stopped working, and he juggled the ball and dropped it. I don't mind someone taking a sack, but hold onto the ball for crying out loud.

Speaking of blaming Booty, he's 100% responsible for the other ASU touchdown, as he threw a pass that was intercepted and returned for a touchdown. Even if the receiver ran the wrong route or Booty thought he was running a different route, the ball was just horribly underthrown. I don't like how Booty consistently overthrows open receivers, but at least that's better than underthrowing them. And then, Booty GIVES UP trying to chase the guy down. You may not be a fast guy, but you had a favorable angle and maybe could have kept him out of the endzone. Then at least our defense would have had a chance to do something.

In conclusion, our defense really only gave up one touchdown in my mind. The final score was really USC 28, ASU 7, EARLY HALLOWEEN TREATS FROM BOOTY TO ASU 14.

WHAT I SAID: "Arizona gets its first PAC-10 win against Stanford."

WHAT ACTUALLY HAPPENED: Boy did they. Stanford's QB got hurt early (in what turned out to be a season ending injury), and the team finished with only 52 total yards on offense. That's less than half the yardage for their previous worst performance. Ever. Oh, and did I mention that this was their homecoming game?

WHAT I SAID: "Don't be surprised if Iowa State kicks Oklahoma while it's down"

WHAT ACTUALLY HAPPENED: Nevermind. But losing Peterson is gonna really suck. But I do want to set the record straight for anyone that might be thinking he hurt himself by doing a "showboat dive" into the endzone after a big run. This is what I heard from a number of sources, and even though I never knew Peterson to be one to do that, I accepted it as truth until I saw the actual footage.

First off, he didn't even dive in. He was leaning forward (kind of falling) as he crossed the line, and then he just landed awkwardly. The reason for this is that a Iowa State player grazed his leg at about the five, causing him to lose his balance a bit. He held the ball out to make sure he got the score, and that threw off his balance even more, causing the fall. It didn't even look that bad, but that's how it is sometimes.

I've always been a big fan of Peterson, and I'm sorry to see his season end like that.

BCS

Before too much is said, remember the BCS only really matters at the end of the season. That being said, here's my very brief assessment.

TEAMS THAT SHOULD BE BOWING BEFORE THE BCS GODS

Auburn
Cal
Arkansas
Oregon
Iowa

TEAMS THAT DESERVE TO BE UPSET BUT SHOULD STILL REMEMBER THAT IT'S ONLY THE FIRST WEEK

Louisville
Texas
Tennessee

THINGS TO CONSIDER

*It's impossible to explain why computers rank things the way they do, which is why I'd prefer it if they weren't involved with the BCS at all. Or at least not the way they currently are, with all these different polls calculating things so differently. The polls voted on by human beings rarely vary as much as the computer ones.

*That said, my guess as to why USC is ranked so high is because their strength of schedule is currently really good. It will take a hit with their next two games, but then go back up with the last four, if ND keeps winning. If USC gets better toward the end, as we have done in the past few seasons, and manages to go undefeated, we should thank the scheduling gods for not giving us the difficult teams earlier.

*People are saying that it's a fairly realistic possibility that even AFTER the Ohio State/Michigan game, those teams could be ranked 1 & 2 and play in the national championship. In order for this to happen, you'd need at least a USC, West Virginia, and Auburn loss. Probably a Louisville and Notre Dame one as well. Still, it could happen...and that would suck. I'm totally in favor of a rematch game for the national championship, but not when the first game would have happened immediately prior.

*If Auburn and West Virginia both win out, WV would probably wind up jumping them. But if WV, USC, and Michigan lose, Auburn could get the national championship game bid...even WITHOUT EVEN PLAYING in their conference championship game.

Think about it. In order to play for it, they need Arkansas to lose twice. If Arkansas only loses once, Arkansas goes. So let's say Arkansas does lose one more time; they get the chance to play in the SEC Championship Game but would be too far down to pass Auburn in the polls. Over in the SEC East, let's say Florida and Tennessee both lose another game. I'm not sure which one would go in that scenario, but once again they'd be ranked too far down to pass Auburn. So all Auburn has to do is win, and they have a pretty good chance.

SOMEONE NEEDS TO BITCH SLAP TOMMY TUBERVILLE

That's right...I said it. Auburn fans might not like it, but it's the truth. Let me explain why.

Last time he made comments about the BCS and championships and whatnot, I made fun of him but could see what he was talking about. But this time, he just seems jaded and bitter. I totally agree that it really sucks that you had an undefeated season and got left out of the national championship game. It's very rare for multiple teams to get through undefeated, but that year there were four. But it's time to move on with life.

Let's take a look at some of the things he said.

"Every year, it's going to be like this," Tuberville said Sunday. "Until we get a playoff, the SEC's going to be on the outside looking in."

Can someone please call him up and remind him that TWO SEC teams have WON the BCS title game? That ties the Big 12 for most BCS title game winners. (Miami was not in the ACC when they won theirs.)

"I think people are enamored by not losing, rather than voting on who the best teams are. That's what I do. Of course, you've got to look at the wins and losses, but you've got to look at who they lost to, where they lost and how they came back."

This coming from a man whose team got trounced AT HOME by an unranked team. Perhaps he's not complaining about Auburn's rank in the BCS (He sure as hell SHOULDN'T be.), but still, the comment is quite ironic.

"After going through what we went through two years ago, I'd hate to think that anybody would get left out of playing for a championship after going undefeated," Tuberville said.

"But it's got to be a legitimate undefeated," he added.

Well guess what, Tommy. They have a way of deciding if it's a legitimate undefeated. It's called the BCS rankings. (Hey, I hate them too, but what else are you going to use until we get a playoff.)

And I doubt his money is where his mouth is. If his team went undefeated and lost the championship bid to a team with a loss that everyone thought was better, he'd throw a hissy fit. And rightfully so. Because an undefeated team in a major conference should ALWAYS go over a team with one loss. It's hard to go undefeated no matter what conference you're in, and if you do it, you deserve the chance to defend your honor in the national title game.

A couple of other things about this:

Auburn said this right after it beat Florida, so in a manner of speaking he was talking about Florida getting left out because they beat them. What? Does he feel sorry for them? If he's that upset about an SEC team not going, then he should have let them win.

He also said this after Auburn was ranked a very generous fourth in the rankings. It's like getting a free car and complaining that he'll have to change the oil every few thousand miles.

Teams have made it through the SEC undefeated, so it's not like that can't happen. Sure it's hard, but it's not impossible. And remember when LSU was ranked third to USC's one in both polls but the BCS picked it over USC? The BCS doesn't discriminate based on conference.

And lastly, he said this after the FIRST SET OF RANKINGS. As I mentioned earlier, it's entirely possible for Auburn to still go to the championship game. Or for another SEC team to do so. Won't his comments look really stupid if that winds up happening? (And no, you can't say that it has anything to do with him having made these comments because the BCS system is still the same.)

THE AP #2 CURSE

Once again, a team jumped USC to claim the spot. Some might claim conspiracy, but I'm not that upset because the spot seems to be cursed. In fact, perhaps it's a combination of cursed and conspiracy. Let me break it down.

Five teams have now occupied the slot. Auburn was there the longest at three weeks. And so far, four teams have lost while in that spot. Ohio State beat Texas. Michigan beat Notre Dame. Arkansas beat Auburn. Auburn then beat Florida. And now Michigan holds the spot.

But now let's have some fun and take a look at how things could work out.

Michigan loses (badly) this week to Iowa, taking a heavy drop in the polls, and West Virginia jumps USC to take the cursed spot. West Virginia then loses to Pittsburgh, and that same week Michigan beats Ohio State in a close game. Ohio State doesn't fall too far (stays ahead of Michigan), but USC only jumps to #2 because Texas jumps them (with impressive wins against the close ones that USC has). Then USC loses to Notre Dame, and Ohio State winds up #2 in the AP and BCS, plays #1 Texas, and Texas beats them, thus completing the circle.

See, it's perfect. Three teams that lost because of the #2 curse get to be the cause of it, and the one that started it all loses in the end. How perfect would that be?

PREDICTIONS

THE UNDEFEATEDS

West Virginia beats Connecticut the same way they beat everyone else.

Syracuse gives Louisville more of a game than they gave WV, but still loses.

Ohio State rolls over Indiana.

Sorry, Rutgers. The dream dies when Pittsburgh takes you down.

Michigan could have a trap game against Iowa. Iowa might still have some fight in them. Plus, Michigan is now in the cursed #2 AP spot. Just for fun, I'll say Iowa wins.

Boise State creams Idaho.

SUMMARY: I think two unbeatens fall, leaving only 5.

OTHER GAMES

It's in USC's best interest if Nebraska beats Texas, and I think they have the power to do it. So they will.

Auburn of course beats Tulane, but I don't think they beat the 32-point spread. I'm not worried that Auburn's defense can't keep Tulane out of the endzone. They probably will. But I don't trust Auburn's offense to score 32 points. Even against Tulane.

Notre Dame plays ucla. Some might think it would be hard for me to choose who to root for. It isn't. (And if you have to ask who, you don't know me at all.)

Congratulations to Colorado for finally winning a game. Too bad the streak is over with a visit to Oklahoma this Saturday.

2006-09-30T20:13:00.000-07:00

TV Review: "Friday Night Lights"

Honestly, I didn't know what to expect from a show that's essentially the 3rd adaptation of a book that I truly enjoyed. (Quick synopsis: writer moves to small town Texas with his family to chronicle a high school football team's season. Good writing ensues.) Before I even read the book, there was "Varsity Blues" which not so subtly borrowed key elements from the book to make an over-the-top MTV music video starring James Van der Beek (side note: it's an OK movie). Essentially, they removed almost the entire "serious" portion of the book, played up the melodrama and made a movie out of it. However, it always seemed to me like the movie had an opportunity to be more than cheesy. Once I read the book "Friday Night Lights", I knew exactly why.

Then there was the movie version of the book, which I disliked quite a bit. Thankfully, I watched it after I read the book. It was a perfect representation of what Hollywood does wrong when they adapt books. At least "Varsity Blues" knew what it was. What bothered me the most was that all of the questions and criticism Bissinger (the author) issued against the football-centric culture in this small-town in the book was turned into a celebration of this community in slo-mo for the movie. They took a great and thoughtful literary work and tried to shoe-horn it into the cliché "uplifting sports movie" box.

That brings us to the show. I was able to watch it a week early thanks to Dish Network: TV on Demand, which has a handful of season previews and pilots to view before they officially air. I was extremely skeptical, especially after seeing the pilot was produced and written (possibly Directed too) by Peter Berg, who did the movie. The first question I had: "Is this an adaptation from the book or the movie?" The movie wouldn't work as a TV show and the book only had a slightly better chance. But, I was incredibly surprised.

I agree with the NY Post which called it (at least on the NBC promo) "The best pilot ever." That's right, I'll go Comic Book Guy on you: Best. Pilot. Ever. I was blown away at what this show was able to accomplish. Typically, pilots only demonstrate a show's potential. A few lines and characters that work, just as many that don't. For "Friday Night Lights," it felt like it was hitting on all cylinders from the jump. It was the best show I've seen this season so far. To make it easier, I'll organize my praise into 3 categories:

1) The look and feel of the show was outstanding. The cinematography was big-budget movie beautiful without making it look glossy and surreal. It didn't lose the reality of the story, which is gritty and simple. The football scenes (the tackling is over-the-top as you might expect with any football adaptation) look very good. It actually feels like you're watching a high school football game in a big-budget documentary. Essentially it looks real but with great cinematography, making it aesthetically pleasing, if that makes any sense.

2) The performances were very good. There are some people that weren't particularly good or even bad, but the ensemble rates highly. A few actors stood out. Kyle Chandler, who plays Coach Taylor, is excellent and very likeable. You absolutely buy him as a high school football coach. He's like the poor man's Ron Livingston. But the guy who stole the show was Zach Gilford who plays Matt, the backup QB. He was pitch perfect and actually looks like a sophomore backup QB.

3) I liked the theme of the show better than the movie or even the book. The movie was designed to make the audience celebrate the town and those players in typically cheesy sports movie fashion. I felt the book, for all it's great social commentary, was too heavy handed and superior in some ways. Rarely do you identify with the people from the community, that honestly aren't all that different from you and I. It always felt like you were on the outside looking in: judging and looking down upon these people. The show manages to show you both sides without being preachy or pretentious (please pay attention Aaron Sorkin) and allows you to come to your own conclusions. You'll find yourself thinking "Thank God I wasn't born in a town like this" and cringing at some of the characters and dialogue for parts of the show. At other times, you'll find yourself identifying with the people and rooting for them to succeed. I really enjoyed the multi-dimensional take.

With that said, this show will probably be panned by critics and viewers and be cancelled in 2 months. But, I would strongly recommend that you watch the premiere on Tuesday ,Oct 3rd at 8pm on NBC and form your own opinion of course…

2006-09-30T19:59:00.000-07:00

Best of Will Ferrell

I decided that instead of writing something thoughful or sharing about my life, I would do a poll to see who reads this. That and I really like lists and ranking things. Feel free to post your responses.

Top 5 Will Ferrell Sketches:
1. Dress sketch- Gus Chiggins the Old prospector
2. Neil Diamond Storytellers (shockingly missing from both Best of DVD's)
3. Crazy Office Manager (w/ Pierce Brosnan)
4. Air Supply Storytellers ("It's Thanksgiving time...")
5. Robert Goulet on Conan O'Brien

2006-09-30T19:54:00.000-07:00

The Sean Patrick Thomas Test

As I dropped Amanda off at work yesterday, I came across a familiar face as I pulled through the alley. It was none other than Sean Patrick Thomas (AKA the guy from "Save the Last Dance" and "Barbershop").

I've lived in LA for awhile so I've seen my share of celebrities but it's always kinda cool. People that are star-struck can be annoying but so are people that act totally nonchalant. So, as I pulled through the alley I was considering my options: 1) Stop and say something complementary 2) Keep on driving. I went with keep on driving. The dealbreaker was that I couldn't think of something genuine to say. You could go with the generic "I loved you in..." but I've never really loved him in anything. I don't dislike him, but never have I said to myself "Wow! Sean Patrick Thomas was great in that!"

Or you can say: "Hey, you're that guy from..." I've never really liked this approach because it seems kind of awkward. To a certain degree I want to respect a celebrities' privacy so I wouldn't want to disrupt their lives with pointing out that I recognize them.
Another potential reaction is complimenting their looks. Apparently this is what my wife would've chosen when talking to Mr. Thomas, who she pointed out was very good looking. (She also has a good celebrity story or two from Pottery Barn)

If you're a jerk you can insult them, but that's not really my thing. (Although I heard a great story about someone meeting Leonardo DiCaprio recently and gushing about meeting him then saying :"Oh my gosh, I loved you in Growing Pains!" Apparently the look on his face was priceless)

So I want people to weigh in on this. Do you say something to celebrities? What do you say? Would've have said something to Sean Patrick Thomas (a classic illustration of someone you recognize but don't necessarily know their name... although I did)? What is your best celebrity sighting story?

Just so you know, I plan on compiling everyone's responses and creating "The Sean Patrick Thomas Test: A guide to interacting with celebrities".

2006-09-30T19:51:00.000-07:00

What do you get when you cross Heidi Klum, Denzel Washington and Sadaam Hussein?

... apparently me. I just used the face recognition software at MyHeritage.com and these are my top 3 celebrity matches (63%-56%). Obviously, it's not super scientific so your results will vary with different pictures (they should probably call it facial expression recognition instead). However, it's a fun way to spend 10-20 minutes so I would encourage you to try it out.
The weird thing is, I spent a few minutes studying the pictures carefully and I was surprised at how similar I looked to Heidi Klum. Not a person I would've expected to be on there. I think the trio of celebrities that top the list are an extremely humorous combination (FYI: I used the picture of me at my graduation, not the fake moustache picture). I'm not sure if I should feel great about my looks or be saddened, considering the results. Luckily I'm married so this has very little practical application.

Two things I can take from this experience: 1) I can now say that on the spectrum of handsome I'm somewhere between Denzel and Sadaam. 2) Sadaam Hussein is better looking that he gets credit for, especially when he was younger. The moustache might turn some people off, but underneath it, you'd find a pretty good looking man. I mean the murderous former dictator thing would detract from his positive attributes if you wanted a relationship, but if you just saw him at a club or something, who knows? Ladies, am I right?

Here's a link to my results: http://www.myheritage.com/FP/Company/faceRecognitionFlash.php?s=1&lang=EN&temp=ab6a7644vcpuj807&server=Server9&database=1&startYear=1800&endYear=2005
Just in case you're curious.

2006-09-30T19:42:00.000-07:00

Random Thoughts

A peek into the mind of Jon:

- There has never been a more annoying song than the one by Nickelback about the photo album. What guy makes a photo album anyway? And even if you did, would you spread it out on the floor and stay up reminiscing about it? If Nickelback never made another song and we could somehow make a time machine to go back and erase all traces of their existence, it still wouldn't like feel we'd done enough to rid ourselves of them.

- Taylor won American Idol. I'm cool with that.

- The show "Alias" quietly ended it's run on a very positive note. It gave us the happy ending we all wanted: Vaughn and Sydney end up together and Sloan gets a fate worse than death. A good end for a show that was very good to start and mediocre for 2 years.

- I have a new theory about pizza. It is to lunch, what an astronaut that walked on the moon is to a party. Let me explain: no matter what you have for lunch, when pizza enters the equation, it beats whatever you have. Walking on the moon pretty much trumps any other party story. The degree you understand this odd analogy is the degree that you understand what I'm all about.

- The 2 Enron guys were found guilty on most charges. They'll probably end up getting like 10 years in a white collar prison or something, which is hardly justice. Justice would be these two clowns having to work to pay off all the money they stole by working directly for the people that they bilked. Few things get me more upset than the powerful exploiting those without power. These guys were already millionaires, but they wanted to squeeze some more money for themselves out of employee pensions. Terrible.

- Song of the moment: "Dead Man's Party" by Oingo Boingo.

- Singing Star Traffic is awesome.